【双语阅读】中信里昂：中国房价还会跌多深？

文摘 2024-09-14 00:14 北京

The fall in Chinese property prices is a normal and expected adjustment in the broader economic development process, similar to trends seen in global markets, said Yang Fan, head of China and Hong Kong research at the investment group CLSA.

历时三年，中国房地产市场仍在持续探底中，市场信心修复艰难。针对中国房地产市场的长期趋势，中信里昂证券中国及香港研究主管杨帆近日指出，部分三四线城市的实际房价自2021年8月至今跌幅达40%以上，接近世界范围内追赶型经济体（Catch-up Economy）房价从峰值下跌的平均幅度，即中国房价的下跌是经济发展过程中的一个正常现象，也是全球其他市场曾经经历的自然调整过程。

After three years of sustained decline, China’s real estate market continues to struggle, with house prices in third- and fourth-tier cities falling by more than 40% since August 2021, according to Yang. The drop mirrors trends seen in “catch-up” economies such as South Korea, Brazil and Japan, where rapid growth is followed by significant market corrections.

A residential project under construction in Huaian, Jiangsu province, on July 15, 2024.

As of July, the area of unsold commercial housing reached 739 million square meters, a 14.5% increase from a year ago, with prices in all city tiers continuing to fall by up to 0.7% month-on-month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics show.

据国家统计局数据，截至2024年7月末，全国商品房待售面积约为7.39亿平方米，与6月末持平，同比增长14.5%；同时一二三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比均继续下降，降幅为0.5%-0.7%，同比降幅整体略有扩大。

The overall drop in China’s housing prices since the market peaked in August 2021 stands at 17.9%, with some smaller cities experiencing a decline of more than 40%, Yang found.

Yang said that this correction was comparable with the average 42.8% decline in house prices seen in other catch-up economies, providing confidence that China’s housing market is undergoing a natural adjustment in line with global patterns.

While the duration of adjustment may vary, this phase typically signals a move into a new economic stage, Yang said.

她认为，随着追赶型经济体城市化红利的快速释放，其房地产市场往往会经历需求下降、价格调整，这一现象在包括日本、韩国、中国台湾和美国在内的多个国家地区均有出现。这种调整通常象征着经济体在发展过程中进入了一个新的阶段，尽管调整的时间长度可能会有所差异。

Japan serves as a historical example. Its housing prices dropped nearly 45% over an 18-year period after peaking in 1991. South Korea experienced a similar decade-long decline of more than 50%. Compared with these countries, China’s housing price correction has been more rapid and less severe, thanks in part to government policies which speeded up market adjustments, Yang stressed.

以日本为例，1991年3月，日本房价触及历史最高点，随后进入了长达18年的下跌期，跌幅近45%。韩国的房价下跌则持续了近10年，距价格顶点跌去超五成。相较之下，自2021年8月全国房价攀至顶点后，迄今平均跌幅为17.9%。

To address the issue of high property inventory, the Chinese government has introduced measures to convert excess housing into affordable units. A policy introduced in July involves the government buying surplus properties for use as affordable housing. Yang believes this will ease inventory pressure, help property developers recover funds and meet housing needs.

This policy is expected to correct the imbalance between supply and demand in the market. The central bank has committed 300 billion yuan ($42 billion) to support this initiative, though only a small portion has been utilized. Yang expects the government will accelerate implementation in the coming months which could help revive the market and stabilize housing prices.

她进一步解释称，随着收储规模的扩大，房地产市场供需失衡的状况将得到有效调整。这种调整有望打破房价长期低迷的局面，为市场注入新的活力。目前，央行已经提供了3000亿元的资金支持，但实际投入使用的资金相对较少。杨帆预计，未来数月政府将更加明确这些资金的使用方向，并在各地加速推进收储工作的实施。

Yang said that urbanization remains an ongoing trend, even as housing prices fall. Historical data from countries like Japan, South Korea and Brazil show that, despite falling prices, the property sector’s contribution to GDP often increases during downturns.

China’s real estate sector accounted for 7% of GDP at the start of the current decline, falling to 5.4% by mid-2024. However, Yang expressed optimism that this figure will rise again, as the market stabilizes, and stronger companies emerge.

其研究结果进一步显示，在大多数国家，房地产行业在GDP中所占的份额随着房价的下降而增加。在中国，房地产占GDP的比重在当前下行周期开始时为7.0%，但在2024年二季度下降至5.4%。杨帆对此表示乐观，认为该项比重将会重新回升：“下跌并不可怕，全球都有过这样的过程。下跌的结果可能是产业出清、优胜劣汰。好的企业留下来，继续去做开发，包括运维、工业管理等等，都是会对经济有所贡献。”

Yang also noted that as housing prices fall, consumption in areas such as tourism, entertainment and culture is expected to grow. During Japan and South Korea’s real estate downturns, service consumption rose steadily.

As China’s service consumption rate was 45.2% in 2023, lower than Japan and South Korea’s levels at the same stage of development, Yang believes there is significant room for growth.

近年来，旅游、戏剧、演唱会等文化场景消费蓬勃兴起，可见即便面临房价下跌的压力，消费升级的趋势仍然不可逆转。杨帆称，如果能够准确把握这一趋势，并配合楼市的相应政策调整，如房地产收储等，将有助于增强消费者信心，并推动服务消费持续增长。鉴于今年二季度经济增长主要受房地产市场下行、消费恢复进程偏慢影响，中国经济恢复仍有待注入有效强心针。

Yang emphasized that the overall trend towards greater service consumption remains strong and recent growth in tourism and cultural events shows consumption continues to evolve, even under real estate market pressure.

Writing by Denise Jia

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