外刊阅读 | 年轻人应如何投资？

How the young should invest

年轻人应如何投资

Markets have dealt them a bad hand. They could be playing it better

市场给他们发了一手烂牌，他们可以打得更好

Young investors, as well as everyone starting to save, have no shortage of lessons to learn. The main ones are classics. Begin early to give the magic of compounding time to work. Cut costs to stop that magic from being undone. Diversify. 

年轻投资者以及每个开始储蓄的人都不乏值得学习的教训。主要的教训都很经典。投资要趁早，让时间这个带来复合增长的因素发挥魔法。削减成本以防止这一奇效被抵消。投资要多元化。

Do not try to time the market unless it is your job to do so. Stick to your strategy even when prices plummet and the sky seems to be falling in. Do not ruin it by chasing hot assets when the market is soaring, others are getting rich and you are getting jealous.

不要试图择时入市，除非这就是你的工作。即使价格暴跌，感觉天要塌下来了，也要坚守你的策略。不要在市场飞涨、看着别人发财眼红就去追逐热门资产而毁了你的策略。

To this time-worn list, add an altogether more dispiriting lesson specific to today's youngsters: you will not enjoy anything like the returns your parents made. Even accounting for the global financial crisis of 2007-09, the four decades to 2021 were a golden age for investors. 

在这个历经时间考验的教训清单上，还可以专为当今年轻人再加上一条更令人沮丧的教训，那就是他们根本得不到父母辈当年那么高的回报。即使算上2007年至2009年全球金融危机那段时间，2021年之前的四十年对于投资者来说仍然堪称黄金时代。

A broad index of global shares posted an annualised real return of 7.4%. Not only was this well above the figure of 4.3% for the preceding eight decades, but it was accompanied by a blistering run in the bond market. Over the same period, global bonds posted annualised real returns of 6.3% — a vastly better result than the 0% of the preceding 80 years.

一个全球股票广泛指数的年化实际回报率为7.4%。这不仅远高于之前80年的4.3%，而且还伴随着债券市场的大幅上涨。同期，全球债券的年化实际回报率为6.3%，远好于之前80年的0%。

That golden age is now almost certainly over. It was brought about in the first place by globalisation, quiescent inflation and, most of all, a long decline in interest rates. Each of these trends has now kicked into reverse. 

那个黄金时代现在几乎肯定已经结束了。它最初是由全球化、通货膨胀平稳以及利率长期下降造成的，最后一个因素尤为重要。这些趋势现在都已发生逆转。

As a consequence, youngsters must confront a more difficult set of investment choices — on how much to save, how to make the most out of markets that offer less and how to square their moral values with the search for returns. So far, many are choosing badly.

因此，年轻人必须面对一系列更加困难的投资选择——该存多少钱、如何充分利用回报更少的市场，以及如何调和道德观与寻求回报。到目前为止，许多人都做出了错误的选择。

The constant refrain of the asset-management industry — that past performance is no guarantee of future returns — has rarely been more apt. Should market returns revert to longer-run averages, the difference for today's young investors (defined as under-40s) would be huge. 

资产管理行业有一句老话——历史表现并不能保证未来回报，这说得再贴切不过了。如果市场回报恢复到更长期跨度的平均水平，对于当今的年轻投资者(40岁以下)来说，回报差异将是巨大的。

Including both the lacklustre years before the 1980s and the bumper ones thereafter, these long-run averages are 5% and 1.7% a year for stocks and bonds respectively. After 40 years of such returns, the real value of $1 invested in stocks would be $7.04, and in bonds $1.96. For those investing across the 40 years to 2021, the equivalent figures were $17.38 and $11.52.

算上20世纪80年代之前的低迷年份和之后的丰收年份，股票和债券的长期平均年投资回报分别为5%和1.7%。这种平均回报维持四十年之后，投资1美元股票的实际价值将为7.04美元，投资1美元债券的实际价值为1.96美元。对在2021年前的40年间持续投资的人来说，相应数字分别为17.38美元和11.52美元。

This creates two sources of danger for investors now starting out. The first is that they look at recent history and conclude markets are likely to contribute far more to their wealth than a longer view would suggest. A corollary is that they end up saving too little for retirement, assuming that investment returns will make up the rest. 

这给现在刚起步的投资者带来了两个危险源。首先，回顾近年的历史之后，他们对市场回报的期望会远高于根据更长期分析得出的期望。这样的结果就是他们最终为退休准备的储蓄太少，以为投资回报能补足退休所需。

The second is even more demoralising: that years of unusually juicy returns have not merely given investors unrealistically high hopes, but have made it more likely that low returns lie ahead.

第二个更令人沮丧的危险是，多年来异常丰厚的回报不仅给投资者带来了不切实际的高期望，还使得未来更有可能出现低回报。

1. plummet [ˈplʌmɪt]

v. 快速落下；骤然下跌 n. 骤跌；陡跌

e.g.

Share prices plummeted to an all-time low.

股票价格暴跌到历史最低点。

2. dispirit [dəˈspɪrɪt]

v. 使气馁；使灰心

e.g.

If he reaches out too much with an olive branch to them that could dispirit him.

如果他向他们抛出更多橄榄枝，等同是搬起石头砸向自己的脚。

3. lacklustre [ˈlaklʌstə]

adj. 缺乏活力的；缺少信念的

e.g.

Many of the national pavilions are lacklustre and unimaginative by comparison.

相比之下，许多国家展馆显得缺乏生气和想象力。

4. demoralize [dəˈmɔrəˌlaɪz]

v. 使气馁；使堕落；使腐化

e.g.

Persistent disapproval or criticism can be highly demoralizing.

一再的否定和批评可能会对信心造成严重打击。