【保险学术前沿】Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 2024年第3-4期目录与摘要

声明：本系列文章基于原期刊目录和摘要内容整理而得，仅限于读者交流学习。如有侵权，请联系删除。

期刊介绍：

《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》为双月刊，每年6期，每期发表文章4篇左右。2022-2023年影响影子为4.7，JCR分区为Q1，是风险与保险领域的顶级权威学术期刊。该期刊以研究不确定性下的风险承担行为和决策分析的理论或实证文章为特色，涵盖的主题包括：决策理论和不确定性经济学、不确定性下的选择心理模型、风险和公共政策、不确定性下的行为实证分析，以及对现实世界风险承担行为的实证研究。

本期看点：

●基于中国工业企业的数据，研究发现台风造成的损害每增加一个标准差，会导致次年企业购买财产保险的概率上升2.6%。这种增长趋势随后逐渐减弱，并在三年后恢复至原有水平。

●家庭成员经济偏好与兄弟姐妹的性别构成和出生顺序有关：次子女通常更缺乏耐心，更愿意承担风险，更信任他人。只有在同性别的兄弟姐妹中，次子女才更愿意冒险。

●参照依赖：在收益领域的高概率和损失领域的低概率方面存在显著的悲观态度，而在收益领域的低概率和损失领域的高概率方面存在概率乐观主义。

●“赌徒谬误”与“热手谬误”：普通的彩票玩家会避免最近赢得的数字，即“赌徒谬误”；因为某件事发生了很多次，所以认为很可能再次发生，即“热手谬误”。根据海地的调查数据，几乎所有的彩票玩家都认为某些数字比其他数字更有可能中奖，而最近的中奖历史是对于数字中奖概率的主观信念中的一个重要因素。

Nathaniel T. Wilcox(阿巴拉契亚州立大学)

摘要：Experimental and behavioral economists, as well as psychologists, commonly assume conditional independence of choices when constructing likelihood functions for structural estimation of choice functions. I test this assumption using data from a new experiment designed for this purpose. Within the limits of the experiment’s identifying restriction and designed power to detect deviations from conditional independence, conditional independence is not rejected. In naturally occurring data, concerns about violations of conditional independence are certainly proper and well-taken (for well-known reasons). However, when an experimenter employs the particular experimental mechanisms and designs used here, the findings suggest that conditional independence is an acceptable assumption for analyzing data so generated.

实验和行为经济学家以及心理学家在构建用于选择函数结构估计的似然函数时，通常假设选择的条件独立性。本文通过一个为此目的设计的新实验的数据来测试这一假设。在实验的识别限制和设计能力范围内，以检测偏离条件独立性的情况，条件独立性并未被拒绝。在自然发生的数据中，对违反条件独立性的担忧当然是恰当的，也是明智的（出于众所周知的原因）。然而，当实验者采用这里使用的特定实验机制和设计时，研究结果表明，条件独立性是分析如此产生的数据的一个可接受的假设。

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-024-09431-9

Zachary Breig（昆士兰大学），Paul Feldman（德州农工大学）

摘要：We argue that a choice that is modified, absent any informational change, is revealed to have been a mistake. In an experiment, we allow subjects to choose from budgets over binary lotteries. To identify mistakes, which we interpret as deviations from an underlying “true” preference, we allow subjects to revise a subset of their initial choices. The set of revised decisions improves under several standard definitions of optimality. These mistakes are prevalent: subjects modify over 75% of their initial choices when given the chance. Subjects make larger mistakes when inexperienced and when choosing over lotteries with small probabilities of winning.

我们认为，如果没有信息变化而修改了选择，则表明原来的选择是一个错误。在实验中，我们让受试者从二元彩票的预算中进行选择。为了识别错误，我们将其解释为与潜在的“真实”偏好的偏离，我们允许受试者修改他们初始选择的一个子集。在几种标准的定义下，修订后的决策集在最优性上有所改进。这些错误非常普遍：当有机会时，受试者修改了超过75%的初始选择。当受试者缺乏经验，以及在选择中奖概率较小的彩票时，他们犯了更大的错误。

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-024-09429-3

Liu Shi（拉德堡德大学），Jianying Qiu（拉德堡德大学）， Jiangyan Li（东北财经大学），Frank Bohn（瑞士苏黎世联邦理工学院）

摘要：Stochastic choice, the act of choosing differently in repeated decisions, can be a conscious decision made by individuals who are aware of their inability to make a definitive choice. To examine the prevalence and implications of conscious stochastic choice, we developed a novel method and implemented it in a preference reversal experiment: In each valuation choice between the bet and a varying reference option, subjects could either pay a small cost to select a specific option or opt for a free randomization choice where a computer randomly selects an option. Our findings revealed that the majority of subjects exhibited conscious stochastic choice, and further that their choices were significantly affected by the elicitation procedures.

随机选择，即在重复决策中做出不同选择的行为，可能是意识到自己无法做出确定性选择的个人有意识地做出的决定。为了检验有意识随机选择的普遍性和影响，我们开发了一种新方法，并在一个偏好反转实验中实现了它：在赌注和不同参考选项之间的每次估值选择中，受试者可以支付少量费用来选择特定选项，或者选择一个免费的随机选择，由计算机随机选择一个选项。我们的研究结果表明，大多数受试者表现出有意识的随机选择，而且他们的选择受到诱导程序的显著影响。

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-024-09430-w

Yugang Ding （广东外语外贸大学）， Peiyun Deng（上海外国语大学）

摘要：This paper examines the causal impact of natural disasters on property insurance take-up of firms. Using the data of industrial firms in China, we find that a one-standard-deviation increase in typhoon damage leads to a 2.6% increase in the purchase of property insurance the following year. This increase gradually declines and returns to the previous level three years later. Our results demonstrate that this impact is driven not by changes in risk preferences or supply-side variation but by the updated risk beliefs learned from the typhoon experience. Unlike household insurance decisions, the learning effect of firms demonstrates an indirect but positive effect of typhoons on the firm’s insurance decisions from its related firms in the upstream or downstream sectors, but not from competitors.

本文探究了自然灾害对企业财产保险参与度的因果效应。基于中国工业企业的数据，研究发现台风造成的损害每增加一个标准差，会导致次年企业购买财产保险的概率上升2.6%。这种增长趋势随后逐渐减弱，并在三年后恢复至原有水平。研究结果表明，这一影响并非由风险偏好的变化或供给侧因素的变化所驱动，而是由于企业从台风经历中更新的风险认知所导致。与家庭保险决策不同，企业的学习能力表明，台风对企业保险决策有间接但积极的影响，这种影响来自于产业链上下游的相关企业，而非来自竞争对手。

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-024-09428-4

Lena Detlefsen(基尔世界经济研究所), Andreas Friedl(基尔世界经济研究所), Katharina Lima de Miranda(基尔世界经济研究所), Ulrich Schmidt(约翰内斯堡大学), Matthias Sutter(马克斯·普朗克集体商品研究所，因斯布鲁克大学，科隆大学)

摘要：The formation of economic preferences in childhood and adolescence has long-term consequences for life outcomes. We study in an experiment how both birth order and siblings’ gender composition are related to risk, time, and social preferences. We find that second-born children are typically less patient, more risk-tolerant, and more trusting. However, siblings’ gender composition interacts importantly with birth order effects. Second-born children are more risk-taking only with same-gender siblings. In mixed-gender environments, children seem to identify with the gender stereotype that boys are much more willing to take risks than girls, irrespective of birth order. For trust and trustworthiness, birth order effects are larger with mixed-gender siblings. Only for patience, siblings’ gender composition does not matter.

儿童和青少年时期经济偏好的形成对人生结果有长期影响。我们在实验中研究了出生顺序和兄弟姐妹性别构成如何与风险、时间和社交偏好相关。我们发现，次子女通常更缺乏耐心，更愿意承担风险，更信任他人。然而，兄弟姐妹的性别构成与出生顺序效应有重要的交互作用。只有在同性别的兄弟姐妹中，次子女才更愿意冒险。在混合性别的环境中，孩子们似乎认同性别刻板印象，即男孩比女孩更愿意冒险，无论出生顺序如何。对于信任和可信度，与混合性别兄弟姐妹的出生顺序效应更大。只有在耐心方面，兄弟姐妹的性别构成才无关紧要。

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-024-09433-7

Brian Dillon(康奈尔大学)，Travis J. Lybbert(加州大学戴维斯分校)

摘要：We use natural experiments in Haiti and Denmark to test recent theoretical predictions about how agents react to random events. Using player-level administrative data, we find that the average lottery player avoids numbers that recently won (the gambler’s fallacy). A small subset of players in each country exhibit the hot hand fallacy, and bet recent winners. We find no evidence of ‘streak switching,’ in which beliefs switch from the gambler’s fallacy to the hot hand fallacy as winning streaks grow. Follow-up survey data in Haiti indicate that almost all lottery players believe that some numbers are more likely to win than others, and that recent winning history is an important factor in subjective beliefs about numbers’ win probabilities.

我们在海地和丹麦进行了自然实验，以检验最近关于参与者如何应对随机事件的理论预测。使用玩家级别的管理数据，我们发现普通的彩票玩家会避免最近赢得的数字（赌徒谬误）。每个国家都有一小部分玩家表现出“热手谬误”，并下注最近所赢数字。我们没有发现“连胜转换”的证据，“连胜转换”即随着连胜的增长，玩家的信念从赌徒谬误转变为热手谬误。海地的后续调查数据表明，几乎所有的彩票玩家都认为某些数字比其他数字更有可能中奖，而最近的中奖历史是对于数字中奖概率的主观信念中的一个重要因素。

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-024-09434-6

Arthur E. Attema(伊拉斯谟大学), Zhihua Li(广东省重点实验室IRADS, 北京师范大学—香港浸会大学联合国际学院)

摘要：Reference-dependence has become a widely established phenomenon in decision making under risk, not only for monetary outcomes but also for other outcomes, e.g., related to health. However, when the prospects involve risk about timing (the time of receipt of outcomes), rather than the outcomes themselves, much less is known about reference-dependence. This study extends discounted utility to incorporate reference-dependence and is the first to test it in timing prospects. We are also the first to estimate the probability weighting function for timing prospects. For both timing and outcome risk tasks, we replicate the typical fourfold pattern of risk attitudes: risk seeking for low-probability gains, risk aversion for high-probability gains, risk aversion for low-probability losses and risk seeking for high-probability losses. In other words, we find substantial pessimism with regard to high probabilities in the gain domain and low probabilities in the loss domain, and probabilistic optimism for low probabilities in the gain domain and high probabilities in the loss domain. Furthermore, we report loss aversion for outcome risks, while for timing risks, we find the opposite result, which we term earliness seeking. In sum, we find substantial empirical support for reference-dependent discounting. Our results show that psychological biases are also important when timing is risky, although the direction of bias may differ.

参照依赖已成为风险决策中一个广泛确立的现象，不仅适用于货币结果，也适用于其他结果，例如与健康相关的结果。然而，当前景涉及时间风险（结果接收的时间）而非结果本身时，关于参照依赖的了解就少得多。本研究将折扣效用扩展以纳入参照依赖，并首次在时间前景中对其进行测试。我们也是首次估计时间前景的概率加权函数。对于时间和结果风险任务，我们复制了典型的四重风险态度模式：对于低概率收益的风险寻求，对于高概率收益的风险规避，对于低概率损失的风险规避，以及对于高概率损失的风险寻求。换句话说，我们发现在收益领域的高概率和损失领域的低概率方面存在显著的悲观态度，而在收益领域的低概率和损失领域的高概率方面存在概率乐观主义。此外，我们报告了结果风险的损失厌恶，而对于时间风险，我们发现了相反的结果，我们称之为早期寻求。总之，我们为参照依赖性折扣提供了大量的实证支持。我们的结果表明，当时间具有风险时，心理偏见也很重要，尽管偏见的方向可能不同。

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-024-09432-8

Christoph Kuzmics（奥地利格拉茨大学）, Brian W. Rogers（华盛顿大学） & Xiannong Zhang（谷歌公司）

摘要：We design and implement lab experiments to evaluate the normative appeal of behavior arising from models of ambiguity-averse preferences. We report two main empirical findings. First, we demonstrate that behavior reflects an incomplete understanding of the problem, providing evidence that subjects do not act on the basis of preferences alone. Second, additional clarification of the decision making environment pushes subjects’ choices in the direction of ambiguity aversion models, regardless of whether or not the choices are also consistent with subjective expected utility, supporting the position that subjects find such behavior normatively appealing.

我们设计并实施了实验室实验，以评估来自模糊厌恶偏好模型的行为的规范吸引力。我们有两个主要的实证发现。其一，行为表明受试者对问题的理解并不全面，这也证实了受试者并非仅仅基于偏好来行动。其二，对决策环境进行额外的澄清会促使受试者的选择朝着模糊厌恶模型的方向发展，无论这些选择是否与主观期望效用一致，这都支持了受试者认为此类行为在规范上具有吸引力的观点。

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-024-09436-4

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