Polls and prediction markets are signaling a Republican sweep in the election；
民意调查和预测市场都在预示着共和党将在选举中大胜；
Not only have polls and prediction markets tilted recently toward Donald Trump winning the presidential election, they are also pointing to Republicans flipping the Senate and retaining control of the House.
不仅民意调查和预测市场最近倾向于唐纳德・特朗普赢得总统选举，它们还表明共和党将翻转参议院并保持对众议院的控制。
A GOP sweep would give Trump a freer hand to enact his agenda.
共和党的大胜将使特朗普更自由地推行他的议程。
While U.S. presidents have broad authority on immigration and tariffs, changes to tax and spending policies would require congressional approval.
虽然美国总统在移民和关税方面有广泛的权力，但税收和支出政策的改变需要国会的批准。
The latest polling analysis from 538 gave Trump a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election versus 47 out of 100 for Kamala Harris. It also gave Republicans an 87-in-100 chance of taking the Senate majority away from Democrats and a 53-in-100 chance of holding the House.
538 的最新民意调查分析给了特朗普 53% 的获胜机会，而卡玛拉・哈里斯为 47%。它还给出了共和党有 87% 的机会从民主党手中夺走参议院多数席位，以及有 53% 的机会保持对众议院的控制。
Prediction markets are showing similar odds for Congress and wider odds for the White House.
预测市场对国会显示出类似的可能性，对白宫的可能性则更大。
According to Kalshi, Trump has a 62% chance of winning the presidential election, with the GOP’s odds of winning the Senate and House at 85% and 52%, respectively.
根据 Kalshi 的数据，特朗普有 62% 的机会赢得总统选举，共和党的参议院和众议院获胜几率分别为 85% 和 52%。
Meanwhile, the new IBKR Forecast Trader from Interactive Brokers puts Trump’s odds of victory at 63%, while Democrats have just 13% odds of holding the Senate and 48% of flipping the House.
与此同时，盈透证券的新 IBKR 预测交易员认为特朗普的获胜几率为 63%，而民主党只有 13% 的机会保持参议院，48% 的机会翻转众议院。
That’s a sharp reversal of fortune from the summer, when Kamala Harris and Democrats were riding a wave of enthusiasm after she took over the top of the ticket from President Joe Biden.
这与夏天的情况形成了鲜明的命运逆转，当时卡玛拉・哈里斯从乔・拜登总统手中接过竞选领导权后，她和民主党人正处于一股热情浪潮之中。
Top pollster Frank Luntz attributed the loss of momentum to her campaign’s shift in strategy toward a more anti-Trump message and away from a pro-Harris one.
顶级民意调查专家弗兰克・伦茨将这种势头的丧失归因于她的竞选策略转变为更多的反特朗普信息，而不是支持哈里斯的信息。
For the economy and financial markets, a Republican sweep in November could raise the stakes even higher.
对于经济和金融市场来说，共和党在 11 月的大胜可能会使风险更高。
That’s as the former president has teased a range of tax cuts and even eliminating income taxes altogether in favor of replacing revenue with tariffs, which could worsen federal deficits.
因为这位前总统已经暗示了一系列减税措施，甚至完全取消所得税，转而用关税取代收入，这可能会恶化联邦赤字。
His promises to hike tariffs across the board and begin mass deportations of undocumented immigrates are also seen as inflationary, potentially adding pressure on the Fed to keep rates higher for longer.
他全面提高关税并开始大规模驱逐无证移民的承诺也被视为具有通胀性，可能会给美联储带来压力，使其在更长时间内保持较高利率。
Trump and his allies have also signaled plans to have more influence over Fed policies and the appointment of Fed policymakers, which require Senate approval.
特朗普和他的盟友也表示计划对美联储政策和美联储政策制定者的任命有更多影响力，这需要参议院的批准。
The past week’s market selloff was due in part to election jitters as “Red sweep talk is occurring all over Wall Street and Washington,” wrote Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, in a note on Wednesday.
盈透证券高级经济学家何塞・托雷斯在周三的一份报告中写道，过去一周的市场抛售部分是由于选举紧张情绪，因为 “共和党大胜的说法在华尔街和华盛顿随处可见”。
In addition, Yardeni Research also sees “bond vigilantes” throwing their weight around in financial markets, pointing to the recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields.
此外，亚德尼研究公司也看到 “债券义勇军” 在金融市场上发挥影响力，这指向了最近美国国债收益率的飙升。
While they oppose the Federal Reserve’s half-point rate cut last month, investors are also assessing the fiscal outlook.
虽然他们反对美联储上个月的 0.5 个百分点降息，但投资者也在评估财政前景。
“The Bond Vigilantes may also be voting against Washington, figuring that no matter which party wins the White House and the Congress, fiscal policies will bloat the already bloated federal government budget deficit and heat up inflation,” wrote Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, and Eric Wallerstein, the firm’s chief markets strategist. “
债券义勇军也可能在投票反对华盛顿，他们认为无论哪个党派赢得白宫和国会，财政政策都会使已经膨胀的联邦政府预算赤字更加膨胀，并加剧通胀。” 亚德尼研究公司总裁埃德・亚德尼和该公司首席市场策略师埃里克・沃勒斯坦写道。
“The next administration will face net interest outlays of over $1 trillion on the ballooning federal debt.”
“下一届政府将面临在不断膨胀的联邦债务上超过 1 万亿美元的净利息支出。”
