Former President Donald Trump's odds of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris are rising less than 24 hours before election day, according to an online betting platform.
“根据一个在线博彩平台的消息，距离选举日不到 24 小时，前总统唐纳德・特朗普击败副总统卡玛拉・哈里斯的赔率正在上升。”
Polymarket, which is funded in part by early Trump backer Peter Thiel, showed the former president with a 58 percent chance of winning as of Monday afternoon, while Harris has a 42 percent chance. The odds are based on the "collective wisdom" of wagers placed on the candidates, rather than outside factors like polling data.
“部分由特朗普早期支持者彼得・蒂尔资助的 Polymarket 显示，截至周一下午，前总统有 58% 的获胜几率，而哈里斯有 42% 的几率。这些赔率是基于对候选人下注的‘集体智慧’，而非民意调查数据等外部因素。”
"Trump's odds are back on the rise," Polymarket wrote on X, formerly Twitter. "Tomorrow is election day."
“Polymarket 在 X（前身为推特）上写道：‘特朗普的赔率又在上升。明天就是选举日。’”
While Trump reached 67 percent on Polymarket on October 30, the former president's odds then plummeted for several days. His odds had dropped to 53 percent by early on Sunday, just hours after one of the country's most accurate pollsters released a poll that shockingly showed Harris winning Iowa by 3 percentage points.
“虽然特朗普在 10 月 30 日在 Polymarket 上的赔率达到 67%，但随后几天前总统的赔率大幅下降。在周日早些时候，他的赔率降至 53%，就在该国最准确的民意调查机构之一发布了一项令人震惊的民意调查显示哈里斯在爱荷华州以 3 个百分点的优势获胜后几个小时。”
Reports emerged last month suggesting that the election odds on Polymarket may be manipulated. The platform later identified a single French national as the owner of four accounts that wagered over $50 million in bets on Trump, according to The Independent. Polymarket doesn't permit U.S. users to bet on the election.
“上个月有报道称 Polymarket 上的选举赔率可能被操纵。据《独立报》报道，该平台后来确定一名法国国民拥有四个账户，在特朗普身上下注超过 5000 万美元。Polymarket 不允许美国用户对选举下注。
On betting platform Kalshi, which does allow bets from U.S. users, the election odds have taken a similar trajectory. While Trump had a 64 percent to 36 percent lead last week, his odds fell sharply a short time later and the candidates moved into a tie within hours of the Iowa poll's release. Trump was leading Harris by 54 percent to 46 percent on the platform as of Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, Harris was favored slightly on PredictIt, where the vice president was shown with a 54 percent chance of becoming the first woman to serve as president at the time of publication.
“在允许美国用户下注的博彩平台 Kalshi 上，选举赔率也有类似的走势。上周特朗普以 64% 对 36% 领先，但不久后他的赔率急剧下降，在爱荷华州民意调查发布后的几个小时内，两位候选人打成平手。截至周一下午，特朗普在该平台上以 54% 对 46% 领先哈里斯。同时，在 PredictIt 上哈里斯略占优势，在发布时显示副总统有 54% 的几率成为第一位女总统。”
With more than 77.3 million votes having already been cast in early and absentee voting across the nation, polls continue to suggest the race remains neck-and-neck. An average of recent national polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight showed Harris with a slim 1.1 percent lead as of Monday. The polling picture was similar in all seven battleground states.
“全国范围内已有超过 7730 万张提前投票和缺席投票的选票，民意调查继续显示这场竞争势均力敌。FiveThirtyEight 整理的近期全国民意调查的平均值显示，截至周一下午，哈里斯以微弱的 1.1% 领先。在所有七个关键州的民意调查情况类似。”
In the FiveThirtyEight averages, Harris had leads of 1 percent in Michigan and Wisconsin on Monday, while Trump had 1 percent leads in North Carolina and Georgia and a 2 percent lead in Arizona. The candidates were tied in Pennsylvania and Nevada. Recent results have been within margins of error for nearly all of the polls.
“在 FiveThirtyEight 的平均值中，哈里斯在周一的密歇根州和威斯康星州领先 1%，而特朗普在北卡罗来纳州和佐治亚州领先 1%，在亚利桑那州领先 2%。两位候选人在宾夕法尼亚州和内华达州打成平手。几乎所有民意调查的近期结果都在误差范围内。”
