宾夕法尼亚选举日降雨，会成为哈里斯或特朗普的 “绊脚石” 吗？

教育 2024-11-02 21:48 广东

宾夕法尼亚州部分地区选举日可能下雨，这可能影响选民投票，特别是西北部地区。目前已有超过 160 万张选票因提前投票和邮寄投票而投出，但选举日当天投票的选民可能面临雨天。气象学家正在密切关注全国 11 月 5 日的天气情况，宾夕法尼亚州等七个摇摆州的选民可能决定谁能赢得白宫。

多项研究表明，恶劣天气对选民投票有影响。2007 年的一项研究发现，雨天对民主党选民的阻碍大于共和党选民，每英寸降雨会使选民投票率下降 1%，降雪也会降低投票率，且更可能影响老年人。2023 年和 2018 年的研究也有类似发现，雨天可能降低民主党候选人的得票率，增加共和党候选人的得票率。

共和党策略师马克・韦弗认为，在这次选举中，共和党和民主党选民都有强烈的投票意愿，恶劣天气不太可能使任何一位候选人在摇摆州受益，除非是灾难级事件，否则雨天不太可能阻止两党选民投票。他还表示特朗普的支持者对特朗普充满热情，会克服困难去投票，而哈里斯的支持者更多是出于对特朗普的厌恶而非对哈里斯的喜爱。民主党策略师卡莉・库珀曼认为，恶劣天气可能对哈里斯有利，因为恶劣天气可能使低投票倾向的选民（那些历史上不常投票或不太积极的选民）留在家中，而这些选民是特朗普正在争取的对象，哈里斯的支持基础更多是习惯投票的群体，受恶劣天气影响较小。

2020 年特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州输给了拜登，截至周五，民调聚合网站 FiveThirtyEight 显示，在宾夕法尼亚州，特朗普以 47.9% 对 47.6% 领先哈里斯。密歇根州和威斯康星州也可能有雨，而北卡罗来纳州、佐治亚州、亚利桑那州和内华达州的天气预报显示为干燥天气。

A rural polling location is seen in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, on November 8, 2022. It may rain in northwestern Pennsylvania on Tuesday, possibly affecting voter turnout in the presidential election.

原文及译文参考：

“Will Pennsylvania's Election Day Rain Hurt Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?”

宾夕法尼亚州选举日的降雨会伤害卡玛拉・哈里斯还是唐纳德・特朗普？

“Some Pennsylvania voters could be disrupted by rainy weather on Election Day, depending on where their polling location is in the state.”

宾夕法尼亚州的一些选民可能会在选举日因雨天而受到干扰，这取决于他们在该州的投票地点。

“As Election Day nears, meteorologists are honing their forecasts for November 5's weather across the nation, and rainy weather could deter some voters from venturing to the polls in northwestern Pennsylvania. Voters in the seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are likely to decide who wins the White House. Recent polls show an extremely tight race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.”

随着选举日的临近，气象学家正在完善他们对 11 月 5 日全国天气的预测，雨天可能会阻止宾夕法尼亚州西北部的一些选民前往投票站。亚利桑那州、佐治亚州、密歇根州、内华达州、北卡罗来纳州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州这七个摇摆州的选民可能会决定谁能赢得白宫。最近的民意调查显示，前总统唐纳德・特朗普和副总统卡玛拉・哈里斯之间的竞争极其激烈。

“And while more than 1.6 million ballots have already been cast in Pennsylvania because of early voting and mail-in ballots, those waiting until Election Day could face rainy weather. Depending on the speed of a storm system moving through the Pacific Northwest and across the nation, some voters in northwestern Pennsylvania could encounter rain while trying to cast their votes on Tuesday, AccuWeather reported. However, newer forecasts are showing the rain may miss Pennsylvania altogether.”

虽然由于提前投票和邮寄投票，宾夕法尼亚州已经有超过 160 万张选票被投出，但那些等到选举日投票的人可能会面临雨天。据 AccuWeather 报道，根据穿过太平洋西北部和全国的风暴系统的速度，宾夕法尼亚州西北部的一些选民在周二投票时可能会遇到降雨。然而，更新的天气预报显示，降雨可能完全错过宾夕法尼亚州。

“Studies Show Rainy Weather Benefits GOP”

研究表明雨天对共和党有利

“Poor weather has a history of affecting people hoping to cast their votes. In 2007, a study by the University of Georgia, the University of California, Merced, and the University of Pittsburgh found that rainy weather deterred Democrats more than Republicans. Voter turnout dropped by 1 percent per each inch of rain. Snowfall also decreased voter turnout, and it was more likely to affect the elderly.”

恶劣天气一直以来都影响着希望投票的人们。2007 年，佐治亚大学、加利福尼亚大学默塞德分校和匹兹堡大学的一项研究发现，雨天对民主党选民的阻碍大于共和党选民。每英寸降雨会使选民投票率下降 1%。降雪也会降低投票率，且更可能影响老年人。

“'In addition to its direct effect on voter turnout, we have shown that bad weather may affect electoral outcomes by significantly decreasing Democratic presidential vote share, to the benefit of Republicans,' the study said.”

“除了对选民投票率的直接影响外，我们已经表明，恶劣天气可能会通过显著降低民主党总统候选人的得票率而影响选举结果，这对共和党有利，” 该研究说。

“A more recent study, in the journal Electoral Studies in 2023, found that rainy weather more likely affects young voters in their mid-20s or younger and decreased their turnout by nearly 6 percent.”

2023 年发表在《选举研究》杂志上的一项更近的研究发现，雨天更可能影响 25 岁左右或更年轻的选民，并使他们的投票率下降近 6%。

“A 2018 study published in Sage Journals similarly found that rainfall 'decreases the Democratic candidate's vote share by as much as 2.08% points, while it increases the Republican candidate's vote share by 1.00% point.'”

2018 年发表在《Sage Journals》上的一项研究同样发现，降雨 “使民主党候选人的得票率下降多达 2.08 个百分点，而使共和党候选人的得票率增加 1.00 个百分点。”

“However, Republican strategist Mark Weaver, who lives in Ohio, told Newsweek that both Republican and Democratic voters feel committed to voting in this election and that it's unlikely either candidate will benefit from inclement weather in the swing states. Short of a disaster-level event, Weaver doubts rain will keep members of either party from voting on Election Day. He also said that Trump supporters feel an 'exuberance and energy' for their candidate that is 'unparalleled in modern American politics.' Whereas those voters might be less likely to vote because of poor weather during other election cycles, that won't be the case with Trump on the ticket this year, Weaver said. 'His supporters will move mountains to get to the polls because they see him as the solution to the problems facing America.'”

然而，居住在俄亥俄州的共和党策略师马克・韦弗告诉《新闻周刊》，共和党和民主党选民都觉得有义务在这次选举中投票，而且在摇摆州，两位候选人都不太可能从恶劣天气中受益。除非是灾难级事件，否则韦弗怀疑雨天不会阻止任何一党的成员在选举日投票。他还说，特朗普的支持者对他们的候选人充满 “热情和活力”，这在现代美国政治中是 “无与伦比的”。虽然在其他选举周期中，这些选民可能因为恶劣天气而不太可能投票，但今年特朗普在选票上，情况就不会如此，韦弗说。“他的支持者会竭尽全力去投票，因为他们认为他是解决美国面临问题的办法。”

“Meanwhile, Weaver said, Harris supporters are motivated more by their hate for Trump than by their love for Harris.”

与此同时，韦弗说，哈里斯的支持者更多是出于对特朗普的厌恶而不是对哈里斯的喜爱。

“'Given how energetic both sides are this year, and given how common early voting has become, I don't know that weather is going to be a factor as much as it might be in a different year,' Weaver said.”

“考虑到今年双方都如此充满活力，以及考虑到提前投票已经变得如此普遍，我不知道天气是否会像在不同年份那样成为一个重要因素，” 韦弗说。

“Harris Could Benefit, Given Support Base”

考虑到支持基础，哈里斯可能受益

“As for this Tuesday, Democratic strategist Carly Cooperman told Newsweek that inclement weather might benefit Harris at the polls.”

至于本周二，民主党策略师卡莉・库珀曼告诉《新闻周刊》，恶劣天气可能在投票中对哈里斯有利。

“'It's possible that poor weather will make low-propensity voters—those who don't historically vote or those less engaged—stay home,' Cooperman said. 'These are voters that Trump is courting and how he is building his support beyond his base, so this would impact Trump's vote. Older voters may also be more inclined to stay home in bad weather, but older voters are more split between Trump and Harris and many of these voters also vote early.”

“恶劣天气可能会使低投票倾向的选民 —— 那些历史上不常投票或不太积极的选民 —— 留在家中，” 库珀曼说。“这些是特朗普正在争取的选民，也是他在其基础之外建立支持的方式，所以这将影响特朗普的选票。老年选民也可能在恶劣天气下更倾向于留在家中，但老年选民在特朗普和哈里斯之间更加分裂，而且许多这些选民也提前投票。”

“'Harris' base of support tends to be among more habitual voter groups, and thus she will be less impacted by bad weather,' Cooperman said.”

“哈里斯的支持基础往往在更习惯投票的群体中，因此她将较少受到恶劣天气的影响，” 库珀曼说。

“Who Won Pennsylvania in 2020?”

2020 年谁赢得了宾夕法尼亚州？

“In 2020, Trump lost to President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania by more than 80,000 votes, although Trump won the state in 2016.”

2020 年，特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州以超过 8 万张选票的差距输给了乔・拜登总统，尽管特朗普在 2016 年赢得了该州。

“As of Friday, polling aggregator site FiveThirtyEight showed Trump leading Harris, 47.9 percent to 47.6 percent, in Pennsylvania.”

截至周五，民调聚合网站 FiveThirtyEight 显示，在宾夕法尼亚州，特朗普以 47.9% 对 47.6% 领先哈里斯。

“Rain also is in the forecast for Michigan and Wisconsin, though forecasts show dry weather for North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.”

密歇根州和威斯康星州也在天气预报中有雨，尽管天气预报显示北卡罗来纳州、佐治亚州、亚利桑那州和内华达州为干燥天气。

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