The final national NBC News poll of the 2024 presidential campaign finds a neck and neck contest defined by clashing forces that have aided both Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump in their pursuit of the White House. Taken together, the poll shows Harris getting support from 49% of registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, while Trump gets an identical 49%. Just 2% of voters say they're unsure about the choice.2024年美国总统大选期间，全国广播公司新闻（NBC News）的最终民意调查显示，这场竞选活动呈现胶着状态，双方力量相持不下，民主党人卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）和共和党人唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在角逐白宫的过程中均获得了助力。总体来看，民意调查显示，在直接对决中，哈里斯获得了49%的已注册选民的支持，而特朗普的支持率也同为49%。仅有2%的选民表示尚未确定支持人选。 Boosting Harris: rising Democratic enthusiasm, a 20-point lead over Trump on the issue of abortion, and an advantage for Harris on which candidate better looks out for the middle class.助力哈里斯的因素包括：民主党热情高涨、在堕胎问题上领先特朗普20个百分点，以及在哪位候选人更关照中产阶级方面哈里斯占有优势。 Helping Trump: two-thirds of voters who believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction, a favorable assessment of Trump's presidency — especially compared with President Joe Biden's current performance — and Trump's double-digit advantage on the economy and the cost of living.助力特朗普的因素包括：三分之二选民认为国家正朝着错误的方向发展、对特朗普总统任期评价有利（尤其是与现任总统乔·拜登的表现相比），以及特朗普在经济和生活成本问题上拥有两位数的优势。 The nation's intense polarization is also defining the close contest, including a gender gap of more than 30 points separating the voting preferences of men and women. Regardless of who wins the presidential race, 60% of voters believe the country will remain divided.美国社会的严重两极分化也在这场激烈的竞选中体现得淋漓尽致，包括男性和女性选民在投票偏好上存在超过30个百分点的性别差异。无论总统大选结果如何，60%的选民认为国家仍将处于分裂状态。 The stability in the survey also stands out, with little changing in the contest since last month, despite the frenzied campaign activity of the final weeks and the billions of dollars in advertisements.该民意调查的稳定性也十分突出，尽管最后几周竞选活动如火如荼，广告投入高达数十亿美元，但自上个月以来，竞选形势几乎没有发生变化。 "This is very stable data from where we were in October," said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.“与10月份的数据相比，这份数据非常稳定，”民主党民意调查员、哈特研究协会（Hart Research Associates）的杰夫·霍威特（Jeff Horwitt）说，他与共和党民意调查员、舆论策略公司（Public Opinion Strategies）的比尔·麦金塔夫（Bill McInturff）共同进行了此次调查。 "We've grown further apart, and we've picked our corner," McInturff added. "Each side is as locked down as it gets, and they don't budge or move."“我们的分歧越来越大，并且我们已经选定了自己的立场，”麦金塔夫补充道。“双方都已牢牢站稳脚跟，绝不退让或动摇。” The 49%-49% race shown in this poll is essentially unchanged from the NBC News poll in October, when the two candidates were deadlocked at 48% each. Given that close elections are often decided by which party better turns out its voters, the NBC News poll also provides a snapshot of what could happen depending on even marginally different turnout scenarios.此次民意调查中显示的49%-49%的竞选形势与10月全国广播公司新闻的民意调查结果基本一致，当时两位候选人的支持率也均为48%，不分伯仲。鉴于势均力敌的选举结果往往取决于哪个政党能更好地动员选民投票，全国广播公司新闻的民意调查还根据选民投票率出现小幅差异的不同情形，预测了可能出现的结果。 In a slightly more favorable environment for Republicans — which means greater turnout among men, white voters and voters without college degrees by even a few percentage points — Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 50%-48%. But in a more favorable turnout environment for Democrats — which means a slight increase in women, white voters with college degrees and voters of color showing up to the polls — these survey results show Harris leading Trump by 3 points, 50%-47%. All of these results are within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.在共和党略微占据优势的环境下（即男性、白人选民和非大学学历选民投票率提高几个百分点），特朗普以50%-48%的微弱优势领先哈里斯。但在民主党占据优势的环境下（即女性、拥有大学学历的白人选民和有色人种选民投票率略有增加），调查结果显示，哈里斯以50%-47%的微弱优势领先特朗普。所有这些结果都在民意调查的误差范围（正负3.1个百分点）内。 Yet because of the nation's Electoral College system, the presidential contest will ultimately be decided by what happens in key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And the latest polls of those states find close margins and little certainty as well.然而，由于美国实行选举人团制度，总统大选结果最终将由密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州等关键摇摆州的情况决定。而这些州的最新民意调查也显示，选情同样胶着，胜负难料。 A 34-point gender gap34个百分点的性别差异 At 49%-49%, the NBC News poll results are as close as possible. But among different groups, there remain enormous differences in candidate support. The poll finds Harris with her biggest advantages over Trump among Black voters (87%-9%), younger voters under 30 years old (57%-41%) and white voters with college degrees (55%-43%).全国广播公司新闻的民意调查结果显示，支持率49%-49%已属尽可能接近。但在不同群体中，候选人的支持率仍存在巨大差异。民意调查显示，哈里斯在黑人选民（87%-9%）、30岁以下年轻选民（57%-41%）和拥有大学学历的白人选民（55%-43%）中较特朗普具有最大优势。 Trump, meanwhile, leads among rural voters (75%-23%), white voters (56%-42%) and white voters without college degrees (64%-34%).与此同时，特朗普在农村选民（75%-23%）、白人选民（56%-42%）和非大学学历白人选民（64%-34%）中占据领先地位。 Yet what continues to stand out as one of the defining features of the election is the enormous gender gap between Harris and Trump, with women supporting Harris by a 16-point margin (57%-41%) and men backing Trump by 18 points (58%-40%).然而，此次选举最鲜明的特征之一仍是哈里斯和特朗普之间巨大的性别差异，女性选民支持哈里斯的领先优势为16个百分点（57%-41%），而男性选民支持特朗普的领先优势为18个百分点（58%-40%）。 This net gender gap of 34 points is larger than the 30-point gap in October's NBC News poll.这一34个百分点的净性别差异大于10月全国广播公司新闻民意调查中30个百分点的差异。 Harris, meanwhile, holds an 8-point advantage among independent voters, 51%-43%. Yet she's ahead by just 9 points among Latino voters, 53%-44%, though the sample size here is small and the margin of error is considerably larger compared with the overall survey. Trump is ahead on cost of living and the border; Harris leads on abortion and the middle class.与此同时，哈里斯在独立选民中以51%-43%的微弱优势领先，但在拉丁裔选民中仅领先9个百分点（53%-44%），不过这里的样本量较小，与整体调查相比，误差范围要大得多。特朗普在生活成本和边境问题上领先；哈里斯在堕胎和中产阶级问题上领先。 As voters consider how the candidates would handle key issues and how they measure up on presidential characteristics, Harris maintains a significant advantage on the issue of abortion, leading Trump by 20 points on which candidate better handles the issue.随着选民考虑候选人将如何处理关键问题以及他们在总统特质方面的表现，哈里斯在堕胎问题上仍具有显著优势，她在哪位候选人能更好地处理堕胎问题上领先特朗普20个百分点。 Harris also is ahead of Trump by 9 points, 51%-42%, on which candidate better looks out for the middle class. By contrast, Trump holds double-digit leads on which candidate better handles the economy (51%-41%) and deals with the cost of living (52%-40%). He also maintains his 25-point edge on securing the border and controlling immigration, which has consistently been his strongest issue over the course of the 2024 campaign.在关于哪位候选人更关心中产阶级的问题上，哈里斯领先特朗普9个百分点，支持率为51%-42%。相比之下，在谁更能妥善处理经济和应对生活成本问题上，特朗普分别以51%-41%和52%-40%的支持率领先。在保障边境安全和控制移民方面，他依然保持着25个百分点的优势，这在整个2024年竞选过程中一直是他最强大的议题。 But voters are essentially split on which candidate better represents change (46% pick Harris, 41% select Trump), and they're divided over who is more competent and effective (with 47% saying Trump and 45% saying Harris). That's a slight reversal from October, when 48% of voters said Harris would do a better job being competent and effective, versus 43% for Trump.但在哪位候选人更能代表变革的问题上，选民们基本持分裂态度（46%选择哈里斯，41%选择特朗普），并且在谁更胜任和有效的问题上，他们也存在分歧（47%选择特朗普，45%选择哈里斯）。这与10月的情况略有不同，当时48%的选民认为哈里斯会更胜任和有效，而特朗普的支持率为43%。 Biden remains a drag for Democrats拜登仍然是民主党的拖累 The NBC News poll shows 41% of registered voters approving of President Joe Biden's job performance, versus 58% who say they disapprove.NBC新闻的民意调查显示，41%的注册选民认可总统乔·拜登的工作表现，而58%的人表示不认可。 That's down slightly from the 43% who said they approved of his performance as president in October.这一比例略低于10月时43%的认可率。
By comparison, when voters were asked to assess Trump's time in office, 48% approve of the former president's job performance versus 51% who disapprove, identical to what the poll found last month — and higher than any assessment of Trump's time in office during his term. Meanwhile, when voters considered what concerns them more — Harris continuing the same approach as Biden or Trump continuing the same approach from his first term as president — 41% of voters say they are more concerned about Harris following in Biden's path, compared with 40% who are more worried about Trump repeating the actions of his term.相比之下，当选民被问及如何评价特朗普的执政表现时，48%的人表示认可，51%的人表示不认可，这与上个月民意调查的结果相同，也高于特朗普在任期间对他的任何一次评价。同时，当选民考虑他们更担心的问题，是哈里斯继续拜登的做法，还是特朗普继续他第一任总统任期时的做法时，41%的选民表示他们更担心哈里斯会步拜登的后尘，而40%的人更担心特朗普会重蹈覆辙。 An additional 14% of voters say neither is a concern.另有14%的选民表示，他们都不担心。 More than half of voters say they've already cast ballots超过一半的选民表示已经投票 The poll, which was taken in the field through Saturday night, also finds 54% of registered voters saying they already voted, plus another 11% who say they planned to vote early in the remaining days. Among that early-voting group, nearly two-thirds of the electorate, Harris leads Trump by 7 points in the head-to-head race, 53%-46%. That's a significant change from the final 2020 NBC News poll, when Biden was ahead of Trump by more than 20 points among these voters. Trump and the Republican Party have invested significant effort in engaging his supporters to vote early this year.这项截至周六晚上进行的民意调查还发现，54%的注册选民表示他们已经投票，另有11%的人表示他们计划在接下来的几天里提前投票。在这些提前投票的选民中，哈里斯在直接对决中领先特朗普7个百分点，支持率为53%-46%。这与2020年NBC新闻最后一次民意调查的结果大相径庭，当时在这些选民中，拜登领先特朗普超过20个百分点。特朗普和共和党今年投入了大量精力，鼓励支持者提前投票。
Among the 33% of voters who say they'll wait until Election Day, Trump holds a 16-point lead, 56%-40%.在表示将等到选举日才投票的33%的选民中，特朗普领先16个百分点，支持率为56%-40%。 That's compared with Trump's nearly 30-point lead among these Election Day voters four years ago.这与四年前特朗普在这些选举日选民中的近30个百分点的领先优势相比有所下降。 Other findings in the poll民意调查中的其他发现 No matter who wins the presidential contest, 60% of registered voters in the poll say the U.S. will remain divided, versus 28% who think it will be more united after the election. Harris and Trump have almost identical scores in popularity, with 43% of voters viewing Harris positively and 50% viewing her negatively (a -7 net rating). That's compared with Trump's score of 42% positive, 51% negative (-9). And when it comes to the battle for Congress, 47% of voters say they prefer Democrats control Congress, while 46% want Republicans in charge. That's basically unchanged from last month, when the two parties were tied on this question last month at 47% each.无论总统大选谁获胜，民意调查中60%的注册选民表示，美国将继续分裂，而28%的人认为大选后美国会更加团结。哈里斯和特朗普在受欢迎程度上得分几乎相同，43%的选民对哈里斯持正面看法，50%持负面看法（净支持率为-7）。相比之下，特朗普的得分为42%正面，51%负面（净支持率为-9）。而在国会席位争夺战中，47%的选民表示他们希望民主党控制国会，而46%的人希望共和党掌权。这与上个月的情况基本相同，当时两党在这个问题上打成平手，各占47%。
