瑞士央行:不排除会再次实施负利率

文摘   2024-10-02 10:56   加拿大  
当地时间9月26日,瑞士央行宣布,再次降息25个基点至1.00%。这是瑞士央行今年第三次降息。
瑞士央行表示,与上一季度相比,瑞士的通胀压力再次大幅下降。瑞士央行还表示,其采取的宽松货币政策是考虑到了通胀压力的下降。为确保中期物价稳定,未来几个季度可能有必要进一步下调瑞士央行的政策利率。
瑞士央行预计今年该国的通胀率为1.2%。
瑞士央行曾于今年3月和6月分别宣布降息25个基点。

瑞士央行新任总裁施莱格尔表示,不排除会再次实施负利率,目前瑞士通胀下行的风险,大于通胀高于零至2%央行目标的风险。

他强调央行稳定物价目标的重要性,表示央行不能排除实施任何措施,利率是央行的主要工具,央行亦准备在必要时干预汇市。

施莱格尔表示,强势瑞郎为瑞士出口带来挑战,但企业面临主要的问题是国外需求不振。

上周瑞士央行今年第3次下调利率,并表示可能会进一步减息。市场估计12月会议上再减息至0.75%的机会为85%。瑞士央行在2年前才退出负利率。

8月瑞士通胀放缓至1.1%,在过去15个月内一直保持在央行目标零至2%的范围内。央行预测明年通胀率将进一步降至0.6%,2026年为0.7%。


BELLINZONA, Switzerland (Reuters) -The Swiss National Bank cannot rule out the possibility of taking interest rates into negative territory while the risks for Swiss inflation are tilted downwards, new Chairman Martin Schlegel said on Tuesday.

The SNB, a frontrunner in the interest rate cutting cycle underway at the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, last week lowered its interest rate for the third time this year and signalled further cuts could be coming.

But the SNB has limited options to do more to lower borrowing costs and take the heat off the safe-haven Swiss franc when interest rates are already at just 1.0%.

"We can't rule out any measures," Schlegel told an event in Bellinzona when asked if the SNB would consider reintroducing negative interest rates it exited two years ago.

"We can't rule out negative rates either," he added, speaking at his first appearance after taking over as head of the central bank from longstanding chairman Thomas Jordan.

Switzerland is no stranger to negative rates, having used them previously to help to cool the franc. The country excited negative rates in September 2022, joining other central banks in raising rates to combat inflation.

Schlegel said downward risks for inflation are currently greater than the risk of the inflation rate going above the SNB's 0-2% target.

"Definitely the downwards risks are higher than the upwards risks," he said.

Swiss inflation slowed to 1.1% in August and has been within the central bank's 0-2% target range for the last 15 months. The SNB currently forecasts inflation to decline further to 0.6% in 2025 and be at 0.7% in 2026.

Markets have currently priced in an 85% probability the SNB will cut rates again to 0.75% at its next meeting in December.

Schlegel stressed the importance of the SNB's price stability goal, saying this was the biggest contribution it can make to the Swiss economy and society.

He said interest rates were the central bank's primary tool, although the bank was also prepared to intervene in currency markets when necessary.

He also acknowledged the challenges the strong franc posed for Swiss exporters, but said the main problem facing companies was tepid demand abroad.

"I'm aware the franc can be difficult for these companies. But the main factor is the weak foreign demand," he said.

($1 = 0.8419 Swiss francs)

(Reporting by John RevillEditing by Dave Graham and Jane Merriman)


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