一份新报告指出，尽管对美国 2024 年总统选举中可能存在的选民欺诈行为存在担忧，但实际上选民欺诈的实例非常少。布鲁金斯学会的高级研究员达雷尔・韦斯特表示，进行选票欺诈是犯罪行为，大多数人不会去冒险，尝试的人可能很少。共和党在 2020 年总统选举期间及之后一直对选民欺诈表示担忧，特朗普及其盟友提起了 62 起诉讼，但只有一起在宾夕法尼亚最高法院推翻原判之前成功，法官们审查证据后得出结论，没有广泛的选票欺诈，选举也没有被窃取。布鲁金斯报告审查了历史数据，包括右翼智库传统基金会的 “选举欺诈数据库”，该数据库列出了 1561 起选民欺诈实例，其中 2024 年有 20 起，最早的案例可追溯到 1982 年。但总体而言，选民欺诈并非系统性、广泛性的，也没有影响选举结果，以亚利桑那州和宾夕法尼亚州为例，在大量的选举中，欺诈案例极少。Poll workers hang signs warning against election fraud outside a polling station during early voting ahead of the US midterm elections in Los Angeles, California, on November 1, 2022.
原文及译文参考：“Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows”美国选举中的选民欺诈？数据和研究显示了什么“A new report relying on extensive historic data has found instances of voter fraud remain incredibly scarce despite alarm and concern over the potential for such activity to sway the 2024 presidential election.”一份依赖广泛历史数据的新报告发现，尽管人们对选民欺诈行为可能影响 2024 年总统选举的潜在风险感到担忧，但选民欺诈的实例仍然非常少。“It's a criminal offense to commit ballot fraud, and most people don't want to go to jail. So that's a sufficient deterrent for almost everybody,” Darrell West, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told Newsweek in an interview. “It's probably a very small number of people who even attempt it.”布鲁金斯学会的高级研究员达雷尔・韦斯特在接受《新闻周刊》采访时表示，进行选票欺诈是犯罪行为，大多数人不想进监狱。所以这对几乎每个人来说都是一个足够的威慑。“可能只有极少数人会尝试这样做。”“Republicans have continually raised concerns about voter fraud during and following the 2020 presidential election. Donald Trump and his allies filed 62 lawsuits in various courts in an effort to challenge the election, many of those cases resting on claims of voter fraud.”共和党人在 2020 年总统选举期间及之后一直对选民欺诈表示担忧。唐纳德・特朗普和他的盟友在各个法院提起了 62 起诉讼，试图挑战选举结果，其中许多案件都基于选民欺诈的主张。“Of the 62 lawsuits, only one succeeded before the Pennsylvania Supreme Court overturned the initial ruling. 'Judges heard the cases, they reviewed the evidence—both Republican and Democratic judges,' West said. 'There were judges appointed by Donald Trump, and they all reached the conclusion there was not widespread ballot fraud and the election was not stolen.'”在这 62 起诉讼中，只有一起在宾夕法尼亚最高法院推翻原判之前成功。韦斯特说：“法官们审理了这些案件，他们审查了证据 —— 包括共和党和民主党的法官。有唐纳德・特朗普任命的法官，他们都得出结论，没有广泛的选票欺诈，选举也没有被窃取。”“Brookings reviewed more than the court cases in writing their report. In the report, titled, 'How widespread is election fraud in the United States? Not very,' the authors reviewed historical data from the right-wing think tank The Heritage Foundation, which spearheaded the now-famous Project 2025.”布鲁金斯在撰写报告时审查的不仅仅是法院案件。在题为《美国选举欺诈有多广泛？不太广泛》的报告中，作者审查了右翼智库传统基金会的历史数据，该基金会率先推出了现在著名的 “2025 项目”。“Heritage laid out cases in every state, creating the 'Election Fraud Database,' which found 1,561 instances of voter fraud that resulted in 1,325 convictions. Of those, 20 cases were brought in 2024, with charges ranging from ineligible voting to false registrations, duplicate voting and ineligible voting.However, the full list of instances stretches back for years, with the earliest instance cited from 1982 (which included 63 individuals and an estimated 100,000 fraudulent ballots). Most of the instances included one offender.”传统基金会列出了每个州的案例，创建了 “选举欺诈数据库”，该数据库发现了 1561 起选民欺诈实例，导致 1325 人被定罪。其中，2024 年有 20 起案件，指控范围从无资格投票到虚假登记、重复投票和无资格投票。然而，完整的实例列表可以追溯到多年前，最早的实例可追溯到 1982 年（其中包括 63 个人和估计 10 万张欺诈性选票）。大多数实例中只有一个违法者。“There are a few cases of election fraud in every campaign,” West said. “But it's not systemic. It's not widespread. It's generally not organized, and I don't think ever has affected the actual outcome, but people often pick on isolated cases and turn it into a systemic and widespread pattern.”韦斯特说：“在每次竞选活动中都有一些选举欺诈的案例。但这不是系统性的。它并不广泛。通常也不是有组织的，我认为它从未影响过实际结果，但人们经常挑出个别案例，并将其变成一种系统性和广泛的模式。”“The Brookings report noted that over the 25 years covering the bulk of the cases cited by Heritage, there were 36 elections held. In the case of Arizona—one of the states most closely watched following the 2020 election—that meant around 42.6 million votes cast with only 36 cases of fraud in total. Pennsylvania, which many have pinned as the state that could very well decide the election, had over 100 million votes cast in 32 elections across 30 years and only around 39 cases of voter fraud.”布鲁金斯报告指出，在涵盖传统基金会引用的大部分案例的 25 年中，举行了 36 次选举。以亚利桑那州为例 —— 这是 2020 年选举后最受关注的州之一 —— 这意味着大约有 4260 万张选票，总共只有 36 起欺诈案例。宾夕法尼亚州，许多人认为它很可能决定选举结果，在 30 年的 32 次选举中，有超过 1 亿张选票，只有大约 39 起选民欺诈案例。“There have been allegations of widespread ballot fraud, but it's really not indicated by the Heritage database,” West stressed.韦斯特强调说：“有人指控存在广泛的选票欺诈，但传统基金会的数据库并没有显示这一点。”分享几个和美国同事学到的地道英语表达！ 遇到不认识的英语单词怎么办？ 关于背英语单词那些事儿: 中国人是如何学英语的？这是我见过最全面的英语学习指南！ 我发现英语好的人都有这20个习惯!
