【双语阅读】深圳官方罕见为国庆楼市发声，此轮热销行情能否持续？

文摘 2024-10-12 18:00 北京

Industry insiders are cautiously optimistic about the recent surge in China’s property market, driven by a series of stimulus policies announced in the run-up to the National Day holiday, but the big question is will it last?

决策高层于国庆假期前释放房地产“救市”信号，多项房地产政策迅速落地。国庆期间，全国多地楼市热度上升，成交频现小高峰。个别地方主管部门为此发声，意欲提振楼市信心。

The policies aimed at stabilizing the sector resulted in a spike in property sales during the holiday week, with some cities seeing transaction volumes reach their highest levels in months.

Shenzhen, historically one of China’s hottest property markets, saw a dramatic shift after the southern city lifted the resale restrictions on both commercial and residential properties, starting Oct. 1. Residential properties can now be sold immediately after obtaining the property rights registration certificate, unlike previously when owners had to wait three years.

9月29日至9月30日，四大一线城市接连发布楼市新政，放松当地的限购、信贷等政策。其中，深圳重点优化住房限购政策，并取消商品住房和商务公寓转让限制，此前两类房屋分别限售三年和五年。

Over the holiday period, new housing sales in Shenzhen surged by more than 664% on the previous year, in a sharp contrast to the previous few years, where housing prices in Shenzhen dropped as much as 30% to 50% from the peak in 2021.

One listed developer said its Shenzhen home sales exceed 3 billion yuan ($424 million) during the holiday week, more than four times its sales target.

10月8日，深圳市住房和建设局（下称“深圳住建局”）发文称，“深圳房地产市场购销两旺”。据该局统计，10月1日至7日，深圳新房住宅认购1841套，合计19.18万平方米，认购量同比增长664.14%。在二手房方面，该市头部中介机构的带看量、成交量分别为24620人次、1314套，日均值分别较2023年国庆期间增长22%、339%。

Other major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou also saw a significant increase in housing activity. According to China Index Academy, the subscription rates for new home projects in Beijing and Shanghai during the holiday week matched their total numbers for September, while Guangzhou's figures more than doubled.

Even second- and third-tier cities, which have experienced prolonged sluggishness in house sales, saw a modest recovery. In Tianjin, for example, hot real estate projects reported daily sales that were equivalent to a full month’s worth of transactions. Huizhou and Chengdu also posted strong performance during the holiday.

其他三大一线城市的市场同样迅速升温。市场机构中国指数研究院（下称“中指院”）称，该机构对北上广部分新房项目在国庆期间的表现进行了调研，京沪项目的平均认购量基本与9月全月认购量相当，广州新房项目平均认购量为9月全月的2.2倍。二手房带看量和成交量也普遍有所增长。

However, many industry insiders remain cautious about whether this surge in demand will continue. Some marketers pointed out that the deal-making rate of new visitors during the holiday was not particularly high, with much of the sales driven by previous customers who had been waiting for the right moment to buy. This raises concerns about whether the market can sustain its current momentum once these buyers are absorbed.

购买力短期内集中释放促使市场复苏。不过，不止一名房地产营销人员告诉财新，国庆期间的到访转化率并不高，成交更多来自于前期有意向，但仍在观望的老客户，新访客户转化率变化不太明显。

The fundamental issue, many argue, lies in the broader economic outlook. Income and employment expectations remain uncertain, and the overall economy has yet to fully recover, a marketer at a state-owned developer pointed out. Some developers are worried that the recent spike in sales may be a “flash in the pan” and are already preparing for a potential slowdown once the initial burst of demand subsides.

上述地方国企华南营销人士透露，假期结束后，他们公司内部召开营销会议。公司判断，当前，经济基本面仍未发生根本性改变，收入、就业预期等问题也未有效解决。尚无力量支撑楼市走出独立于宏观经济的行情。

Writing by Denise Jia

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