学英语，请看这儿！ 外刊文章来源于《每日电讯报》，作者詹姆斯·约翰逊，其是 J.L. 合伙人公司的联合创始人。2024年10月22日英国夏令时下午4 点17分发布，题为'Donald Trump now has a 66 per cent chance of victory' https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2024/10/22/donald-trumps-chances-of-winning-are-soaring-voters-fear-is/#comment
Donald Trump now has a 66 per cent chance of victory. The swing states are breaking for the Republican. Fear of his return appears to be fading.特朗普现在有 66%的获胜几率摇摆州正在倒向共和党。对他回归的恐惧似乎正在消退。The swing states are breaking for Donald Trump. That is the growing consensus among forecasters Stateside. Five Thirty Eight has Trump moving to a 51 per cent chance of victory, Nate Silver gives Trump a 53 per cent chance, and The Economist has Trump at 54 per cent.摇摆州正在倒向唐纳德·特朗普。这是美国国内预测者们日益达成的共识。“Five Thirty Eight”认为特朗普有 51%的获胜几率，内特·西尔弗认为特朗普有 53%的几率获胜，《经济学人》则认为特朗普有 54%的几率获胜。The projection of my firm, J.L. Partners, has had Trump above a 50 per cent chance for a month. We now rate him with a 66 per cent chance of victory.我的公司 J.L. Partners 的预测显示，特朗普有超过 50%的获胜几率已经有一个月了。现在我们认为他有 66%的获胜几率。The main movement behind this is that Trump is performing better in the seven swing states. Surveys throughout this election cycle have tended to see him crossing the line in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia – but they are not enough to win an Electoral College victory. The former president will need to win one Midwest state to do so, from the crop of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. And although the latter two are better turf for Harris, the key state of Pennsylvania has seen a glut of positive Trump polling in recent days.这背后的主要动向是特朗普在七个摇摆州表现更好。在整个选举周期的调查中，他往往在亚利桑那州、内华达州、北卡罗来纳州和佐治亚州领先——但这还不足以赢得选举人团的胜利。这位前总统需要从宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州和威斯康星州中赢得一个中西部州才能做到这一点。虽然后两个州对哈里斯来说更有利，但关键的宾夕法尼亚州最近出现了大量对特朗普有利的民意调查。National polls are less important – the race is decided state-by-state – but can still give us an indication of the result. Recent, high-quality polls have seen Trump leading the popular vote. If that happens, then he will likely sweep all seven swing states and could make inroads in Minnesota and New Mexico, too. Such an outcome still feels unlikely: he did not achieve this even in 2016 against the much less popular Hillary Clinton.全国性的民意调查不太重要——选举是逐州决定的——但仍然可以给我们一个结果的指示。最近的高质量民意调查显示特朗普在普选中领先。如果这种情况发生，那么他可能会横扫所有七个摇摆州，也可能在明尼苏达州和新墨西哥州取得进展。但这样的结果仍然感觉不太可能：即使在 2016 年对阵远不如现在受欢迎的希拉里·克林顿时，他也没有做到这一点。In a polarised electorate, where more than 90 per cent have made up their minds, it might seem odd that Trump’s position is improving this late in the day. Two things might be fuelling this.在一个两极分化的选民群体中，超过 90%的人已经下定决心，特朗普的地位在这个时候还在提升似乎有些奇怪。有两件事可能推动了这一情况。First, a boom in Republican registrations in Pennsylvania and strong early voting numbers in Nevada suggest that he may be benefitting from better than expected turnout from his own supporters. Though both sides are splurging vast amounts of cash on ads – and Harris’ ad budgets exceed the Trump campaign’s – his may be landing better, particularly in emphasising the day-to-day pains of inflation versus life under Trump.首先，宾夕法尼亚州共和党登记人数的激增和内华达州早期投票人数的强劲表明，他可能受益于自己的支持者比预期更好的投票率。尽管双方都在广告上花费了大量现金——哈里斯的广告预算超过了特朗普的竞选预算——但他的广告可能效果更好，特别是在强调通货膨胀的日常痛苦与特朗普执政下的生活对比方面。Harris has succeeded where Biden could not in making this campaign a referendum on the former president, but this also means Trump can point to what his core voters see as a better economic picture in his first term.哈里斯在让这场竞选成为对前总统的公投方面取得了拜登未能取得的成功，但这也意味着特朗普可以指出他的核心选民认为他在第一个任期内有更好的经济状况。His visits and stunts in key states have also been eye-catching and visual, robbing attention from the opposing campaign and driving up excitement among his own supporters. Could you tell me what Harris was doing on Sunday while Trump served up McDonald’s fries in Pennsylvania? Thought not.他在关键州的访问和噱头也很引人注目，从对手的竞选活动中吸引了注意力，并激发了自己支持者的热情。你能告诉我在特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州分发麦当劳薯条的那个星期天，哈里斯在做什么吗？想不起来吧。Second, some undecideds may be breaking for Donald Trump. These are a small number – two million across all seven swing states – but, with margins so tight, where they land will make a difference.其次，一些未决定的选民可能正在倒向唐纳德·特朗普。这些人数量很少——在所有七个摇摆州共有 200 万人——但是，由于差距如此之小，他们的选择将产生影响。I have spent months talking to these undecided voters across the country. Again and again, they have expressed concern about Trump’s temperament. He’s a “whining baby” said a Nevadan local as we scaled a sand dune together. He’s “plain nasty”, said an undecided fortune teller in North Carolina. He’s “not a good man”, a Seventh Day Adventist church pastor noted in Georgia. Trump’s poor debate performance against Kamala Harris, where she successfully riled him, only entrenched this view.我花了几个月的时间与全国各地这些未决定的选民交谈。他们一次又一次地表达了对特朗普脾气的担忧。当我们一起爬上沙丘时，一位内华达州当地人说他是一个“爱抱怨的婴儿”。北卡罗来纳州一位未决定的算命师说他“非常讨厌”。佐治亚州的一位基督复临安息日会牧师指出他“不是一个好人”。特朗普在与卡玛拉·哈里斯的辩论中表现不佳，被她成功激怒，这只会加深这种看法。But in recent days, undecided voters have talked instead about his strength. “He might be an asshole, but he does get things done”, an undecided widow in Wisconsin told me. The prominence of foreign affairs, and the prospect of all-out war in the Middle East, may have helped this: voters still feel he is best-placed to handle global conflict than Harris. As the widow put it: “abortion rights don’t matter if we all get blown up”. Trump’s recent toning down of his sharpest rhetoric has given voters space to consider the upsides of his brashness.但最近几天，未决定的选民转而谈论他的实力。“他可能是个混蛋，但他确实能把事情做好”，威斯康星州一位未决定的寡妇告诉我。外交事务的突出地位以及中东全面战争的前景可能对此有所帮助：选民仍然认为他比哈里斯更有能力处理全球冲突。正如这位寡妇所说：“如果我们都被炸飞了，堕胎权就不重要了”。特朗普最近缓和了他最尖锐的言辞，给了选民考虑他鲁莽行为好处的空间。Harris, meanwhile, faces problems in mobilising her own base. Black men – crucial in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina – are not showing signs of turning out in the same numbers as they did for Joe Biden or Barack Obama. One black voter, Gabriel, who I met in rural Georgia, put it frankly for me: “If you think white men have a problem with black women, wait ‘til you hear what black men think”.与此同时，哈里斯在动员自己的基础选民方面面临问题。黑人男性——在佐治亚州、宾夕法尼亚州和北卡罗来纳州至关重要——没有显示出像为乔·拜登或巴拉克·奥巴马投票时那样的人数。我在佐治亚州农村遇到的一位黑人选民加布里埃尔坦率地对我说：“如果你认为白人男性对黑人女性有意见，那等着听听黑人男性的想法吧”。Harris also faces attrition among Hispanic voters, and some progressive young voters are looking to punish her at the ballot box over her backing for Israel. Independent voters do not hate the Vice President. I have heard her described as “nice”, “like your aunt”, and a “good person”. But they doubt her strength and ability to lead.哈里斯还面临着西班牙裔选民的流失，一些进步的年轻选民因为她对以色列的支持而想在投票中惩罚她。独立选民并不讨厌副总统。我听到有人形容她“很好”、“像你的阿姨”和“一个好人”。但他们怀疑她的实力和领导能力。There are caveats to everything I have said. A 35 per cent chance of a Harris win still means she wins in one in three of our simulations. The models are based on polls that have been wrong in the past. One state could also buck the trend due to local factors. Trump, for example, could be dragged down by the scandal-hit Republican candidate for governor in North Carolina.我所说的一切都有注意事项。哈里斯有 35%的获胜几率仍然意味着在我们的模拟中她有三分之一的机会获胜。这些模型是基于过去曾出错的民意调查。一个州也可能由于当地因素而逆势而行。例如，特朗普可能会被北卡罗来纳州受丑闻影响的共和党州长候选人拖累。But with two weeks to go, it is better to be in Donald Trump’s shoes than Kamala Harris.但在还有两周的时候，处于唐纳德·特朗普的位置比处于卡玛拉·哈里斯的位置更好。While writing this article, Chris – an undecided voter in Georgia – called me. In 2020, he backed Biden out of fear of Trump. Though he hasn’t yet made up his mind, he told me: “I’m not scared of Trump in the way I have been before. I think we’ve got to face the reality for what it is. Trump’s going to get re-elected, but he won’t destroy the country”.在写这篇文章的时候，克里斯——佐治亚州一位未决定的选民——给我打电话。在 2020 年，出于对特朗普的恐惧，他支持了拜登。虽然他还没有下定决心，但他告诉我：“我不再像以前那样害怕特朗普了。我认为我们必须面对现实。特朗普会再次当选，但他不会毁掉这个国家”。The fear is fading. If Kamala Harris cannot reawaken voters’ fear of Donald Trump, then he is set to win the most swing states in two weeks’ time.恐惧正在消退。如果卡玛拉·哈里斯不能重新唤起选民对唐纳德·特朗普的恐惧，那么他将在两周内赢得最多的摇摆州。分享几个和美国同事学到的地道英语表达！ 遇到不认识的英语单词怎么办？ 关于背英语单词那些事儿: 中国人是如何学英语的？这是我见过最全面的英语学习指南！ 我发现英语好的人都有这20个习惯!
